Why China Is Likely to Stay on the Sidelines as Iran Faces Unrest

Amid one of the most intense waves of anti-government protests in Iran’s recent history, China finds itself in a delicate diplomatic position. The unrest, driven by deepening economic woes and political dissatisfaction, has drawn global attention. Analysts say Beijing sees the situation as serious, but direct intervention by China remains unlikely despite its extensive ties with Tehran.

Protests have erupted across Iran as ordinary citizens protest rising inflation, unemployment, and shortages of essential goods. Demonstrators have also voiced anger over political repression and corruption, with thousands reportedly killed and many more arrested since demonstrations intensified. External actors, including the United States, have weighed in, with President Donald Trump encouraging protestors to continue and hinting at economic and military pressure on Iran.

China’s historical relationship with Iran stretches back decades and has grown deeper in recent years. A comprehensive 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 was intended to expand economic, infrastructure, and energy ties and was seen as a cornerstone of Beijing’s Middle East outreach. Through this framework, China has become a major purchaser of Iranian crude oil and a key economic partner.

Despite this, experts note that Beijing is cautious. China’s approach to foreign crises has long been guided by a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations. Officials reiterate this stance even as voices within Tehran hope for stronger support. Chinese diplomats have condemned external interference in Iran’s domestic matters and called for respect for Iranian sovereignty, underscoring Beijing’s reluctance to become entangled in confrontations that would risk broader geopolitical consequences.

China’s economic interests in Iran are significant, especially in the energy sector. In 2025, China imported a substantial portion of its crude oil from Iran discounted cargoes that many independent Chinese refiners depend on to operate profitably. However, state-owned companies have been wary of U.S. sanctions that target energy trade with Tehran, and recent global tensions have led to record amounts of Iranian oil being stored at sea because buyers are hesitant amid geopolitical risks.

Moscow and Beijing both have an interest in limiting U.S. influence in global affairs, yet analysts believe China’s leadership prioritizes economic stability and the security of its global trade networks over taking sides in foreign domestic conflicts. Direct military or political intervention in Iran could invite serious economic and diplomatic blowback, potentially harming Beijing’s interests in markets around the world.

For now, China appears content to maintain its economic ties with Iran while advocating for dialogue and restraint. It is unlikely to offer military backing or overt political support that would draw it directly into the crisis. As regional tensions persist and internal pressure mounts within Iran, China’s balancing act will continue to reflect its broader strategic caution in volatile geopolitical landscapes.