Norwegian security authorities have warned that Russian intelligence activity targeting Norway is expected to intensify in the coming year, with a particular focus on the Arctic region and critical national infrastructure. Officials say the growing threat reflects heightened geopolitical tensions linked to the war in Ukraine and Norway’s strategic role in Europe’s energy security.
According to Norway’s domestic security service PST, Russian intelligence agencies are likely to expand their operations in twenty twenty six, concentrating on military facilities, allied exercises, political decision making, and infrastructure in the High North. The assessment was outlined in the agency’s annual threat report released on Friday.
Norway has emerged as a key ally of Ukraine and is currently Europe’s largest supplier of pipeline gas, making it a sensitive target for both physical and cyber sabotage. Norwegian officials fear that Moscow may attempt to undermine Oslo’s support for Kyiv by disrupting energy supplies or spreading instability through covert operations. Russia has repeatedly denied allegations of sabotage or espionage planning, dismissing them as exaggerated Western narratives.
Security authorities say recent countermeasures have limited Russia’s traditional intelligence channels. Norway has expelled several Russian diplomats suspected of intelligence work and has closed most of its ports to Russian vessels. However, officials caution that these steps have not eliminated the threat. Instead, they believe Russian agencies are adapting their methods and seeking alternative ways to collect information.
Beate Gangaas, head of PST, said Russian services would attempt to compensate for lost access by increasing surveillance activities and using non traditional platforms. This could include greater reliance on civilian ships, digital tools, and indirect human networks to monitor infrastructure and military movements along Norway’s rugged coastline.
European governments have grown increasingly concerned about what they describe as hybrid threats, including espionage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage. These concerns have intensified since Russia invaded Ukraine. Late last year, senior NATO military officials warned that the alliance must be prepared to respond to such threats to protect member states and maintain regional stability.
One area of particular concern is the reported attempt by Russian intelligence services to recruit Ukrainian refugees living in Norway. PST warned that individuals with family members or property in Russian occupied parts of Ukraine may be especially vulnerable to coercion. With an estimated one hundred thousand Ukrainian refugees currently residing in Norway, authorities say this represents a serious security challenge.
In the Arctic, Norway closely monitors Russian military movements in the North Atlantic and around the Kola Peninsula, which hosts Russia’s Northern Fleet and much of its nuclear second strike capability. Nils Stensoenes, head of Norway’s military intelligence service, described the country as NATO’s primary source of situational awareness in the far north.
Norwegian intelligence has also observed a gradual increase in China’s presence in the Arctic. While Beijing’s activities remain largely scientific, including the deployment of research vessels, officials say China appears to be laying long-term groundwork to become a future Arctic stakeholder. For now, Norwegian authorities assess that Chinese military involvement in the region remains limited.
As geopolitical competition intensifies in the Arctic, Norway says vigilance will be essential to protect national security, energy supplies, and allied interests in one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.
