China’s Russian Oil Imports Set for Record High as India Scales Back Purchases
China’s imports of Russian crude oil are on track to reach a new monthly record in February, as refiners take advantage of discounted cargoes amid a reduction in purchases by India, according to trader estimates and ship tracking data.
Preliminary assessments indicate that Russian crude deliveries to China could exceed 2 million barrels per day this month, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. Estimates from market analytics firms suggest February arrivals are significantly higher than January levels, when imports were already elevated.
The surge reflects shifting trade flows in the global energy market. Since late last year, China has overtaken India as Russia’s largest buyer of seaborne crude. Western sanctions linked to the conflict in Ukraine have altered traditional supply routes, prompting Russia to redirect substantial volumes of oil toward Asian markets. At the same time, diplomatic and trade considerations have led India to trim its intake of Russian crude, opening space for additional Chinese purchases.
Independent Chinese refiners, often referred to as teapots, have been particularly active in securing Russian cargoes. These refiners are highly sensitive to price differentials and have capitalised on discounts offered on Russian grades compared with benchmark international crudes. Lower feedstock costs help protect refining margins in a domestic market where fuel demand growth has moderated.
Russian oil shipped to China typically arrives through a mix of pipeline deliveries and seaborne cargoes, including shipments from the Far East port of Kozmino and other export terminals. The rise in maritime volumes has drawn attention to logistics and insurance arrangements, as sanctions and price cap mechanisms continue to shape tanker availability and trade finance conditions.
Energy analysts note that China’s growing appetite for discounted Russian crude reflects broader strategic considerations. Securing stable and affordable energy supplies remains a priority for Beijing, particularly as the economy navigates structural adjustments and fluctuating global demand. Diversified sourcing and opportunistic purchasing during periods of price dislocation are consistent with China’s long standing approach to energy security.
For Russia, redirecting exports toward China and other Asian buyers has become essential in maintaining revenue streams under sanctions pressure. The evolving buyer landscape underscores how geopolitical tensions have reshaped global oil trade patterns over the past two years.
Meanwhile, India’s scaled back imports have been attributed to a combination of external pressure and commercial recalibration. While Indian refiners had previously ramped up purchases of Russian crude to take advantage of lower prices, recent months have seen adjustments amid changing diplomatic and market dynamics.
If February figures are confirmed at current projections, the record inflow will further cement China’s position as Moscow’s leading oil customer, highlighting the deepening energy linkage between the two countries as global trade routes continue to realign.
