China’s Taiwan Drills Raise Questions Over Strategy to Exhaust Island’s Air Defences
China’s latest military drills around Taiwan are being closely analysed by regional security watchers, with growing attention on whether Beijing is experimenting with low cost methods to gradually weaken the island’s air defence capabilities.
The two day live fire exercise, named Justice Mission 2025, concluded on Tuesday after the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command conducted coordinated operations surrounding large areas of Taiwan. According to Chinese military statements, the drills involved rocket launches, air and naval coordination and simulated precision strikes, all framed as routine readiness training.
Military observers and analysts outside China believe the exercise carried a more specific signal. Several experts suggested the drills may have tested how sustained use of relatively inexpensive rockets and munitions could exhaust Taiwan’s air defence systems over time. Air defence networks rely on interceptors that are costly and limited in number, raising concerns that repeated pressure could strain the island’s ability to respond in a prolonged crisis.
The timing of the exercise has also drawn attention. It took place less than two weeks after the United States approved a US$11.1 billion weapons package for Taiwan, the largest military aid commitment Washington has ever made to the island. The package includes air defence systems, missile upgrades and surveillance capabilities, reinforcing Taiwan’s defensive posture but also heightening tensions with Beijing.
China’s government has long opposed arms sales to Taiwan, which it considers a breakaway province. Beijing argues that such deals undermine regional stability and violate commitments made by Washington in past diplomatic agreements. In response to the latest US decision, Chinese officials warned of firm countermeasures and accused external powers of encouraging separatist sentiment.
From a strategic perspective, analysts say the drills may reflect a broader shift in Chinese military thinking. Rather than focusing solely on large scale conflict scenarios, the People’s Liberation Army appears increasingly interested in sustained pressure tactics that exploit economic and logistical asymmetries. Using cheaper munitions in large numbers could force Taiwan to spend heavily on defence while maintaining constant alert levels.
Taiwan’s defence authorities have acknowledged the growing complexity of the threat environment but insist that the island is prepared. Officials in Taipei said they closely monitored the drills and deployed appropriate responses without escalating the situation. They also emphasised ongoing efforts to improve readiness, including stockpiling interceptors and enhancing early warning systems.
The latest exercise adds to a steady increase in military activity around Taiwan in recent years. Fighter jet sorties, naval patrols and missile drills have become more frequent, reinforcing concerns about miscalculation or accidental escalation in one of Asia’s most sensitive flashpoints.
While no immediate confrontation appears imminent, observers agree that Justice Mission 2025 serves as a reminder of the evolving nature of cross strait tensions. The focus is no longer just on dramatic shows of force, but on endurance, cost and the long term balance between offence and defence.
