Commentary: China’s Export Growth Turns Negative in October as Global Demand Softens
China’s exports unexpectedly fell in October, marking the first monthly contraction since March and underscoring the uneven nature of the country’s post-pandemic trade recovery. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 7 showed that exports, measured in U.S. dollar terms, declined 1.1% year-on-year. The reversal followed a sharp 8.3% rise in September and surprised analysts, who had forecast a 3.2% increase.
Economists say the decline reflects weakening global demand and continued adjustments in international supply chains. The data comes as global manufacturing remains subdued and as many economies tighten monetary policy to control inflation, dampening consumption and imports. For China, which relies heavily on exports for industrial momentum, the shift signals renewed headwinds heading into the final quarter of the year.
A closer look at the data reveals mixed regional trends. Exports to the United States, while still contracting, showed a smaller decline, down 25.2% compared with 27.0% in September. This modest improvement suggests some stabilization in U.S.-bound shipments, particularly in consumer electronics and machinery. However, the overall volume remains far below last year’s levels, weighed down by ongoing trade tensions and reduced inventory demand among American retailers.
Shipments to ASEAN countries continued to provide a bright spot, growing 11.0% year-on-year, though this was slower than the 15.6% growth recorded in September. Southeast Asia has become one of China’s most resilient export markets, driven by strong demand for intermediate goods and cross-border supply chain integration. Analysts noted that ASEAN’s manufacturing expansion and investment in electronics assembly have helped cushion some of the weakness in Western markets.
Exports to the European Union remained under pressure, reflecting weak industrial activity and subdued consumer confidence across the bloc. Several analysts cited Europe’s energy costs and sluggish growth outlook as persistent drags on Chinese shipments of mechanical and household goods. Meanwhile, exports of new energy products such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries continued to expand but at a slower pace than earlier in the year.
The overall trade picture highlights China’s ongoing struggle to balance export reliance with domestic growth goals. While exports have been a crucial pillar for economic stability, softening overseas demand has pushed policymakers to focus more on internal consumption and high-tech industries. Beijing has also stepped up efforts to diversify trade relationships through regional pacts such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and expanding trade with Belt and Road partners.
Economists expect the coming months to remain volatile. Seasonal holiday demand could offer short-term relief, but structural factors such as global industrial realignment and technology export restrictions continue to pose challenges. The latest data also raises questions about the pace of recovery in global trade and whether China’s export sector can sustain growth amid a shifting geopolitical and economic landscape.
For now, the October figures serve as a reminder that even as supply chains recover, global trade remains sensitive to policy shifts and demand fluctuations. China’s exporters, long accustomed to rapid expansion, may need to adapt to a more moderate and uncertain global environment.
