Experts Doubt China Will Lift Bitcoin Mining Ban Despite Rising Activity and Surplus Energy
A small increase in bitcoin mining activity in China has reignited debate over whether Beijing should reconsider its strict ban on the industry. Recent data shows that China’s share of global bitcoin hash rate has inched up, leading some scholars and analysts to argue that the country should harness its excess renewable energy for mining operations. However, most experts believe that despite these numbers, Beijing is unlikely to reverse its hard stance on cryptocurrency mining anytime soon.
China’s Hash Rate Creeps Up Again
According to the Hashrate Index, China’s share of global bitcoin mining rose from 13.75 percent in the first quarter of 2025 to 14.06 percent this quarter, placing it behind only the United States and Russia. Although the increase is small, it is notable given China’s previously sharp decline. In July 2021, just two months after Beijing launched a sweeping crackdown on bitcoin mining, China’s hash rate dropped to zero based on data from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index. The drop symbolized one of the most aggressive actions taken against the cryptocurrency sector anywhere in the world.
A Rebound That Came Earlier Than Many Realized
Interestingly, despite the official ban, China’s mining activity bounced back much sooner than expected. Data from Cambridge showed that by September 2021, China’s market share had already recovered to more than 22 percent. Although the organization stopped updating its mining map in 2022, the available figures suggest that mining activity did not disappear fully but continued underground or in more discreet forms. Today’s slight uptick reflects that pattern, indicating that some miners still operate quietly in regions where enforcement is inconsistent.
A Growing Argument: Use Excess Energy for Mining
The renewed interest in mining also overlaps with a growing discussion about China’s surplus clean energy, especially in remote regions. China has rapidly expanded its renewable infrastructure in recent years. Oversupply has become a challenge in regions where solar energy exceeds 10 percent, and wind energy surpasses 15 percent. Scholars argue that this excess output represents wasted potential. One proposal suggests using bitcoin mining as a flexible way to absorb surplus energy during off-peak periods, helping stabilize grids that struggle to balance generation and consumption.
Academic Calls for Policy Rethink
In March, Guojun He, a professor of economics at the University of Hong Kong and associate director of the university’s Institute of China Economy, wrote an article advocating a fresh look at mining regulations. He argued that reintroducing crypto mining could help China utilize renewable power that would otherwise be curtailed. According to his proposal, controlled mining activities, especially those located in renewable rich regions, could assist the country’s broader transition toward carbon neutrality. His stance reflects a belief that mining can be repurposed as a tool rather than viewed purely as a financial risk.
Why Experts Still Doubt a Policy Reversal
Despite these suggestions, analysts remain sceptical that Beijing will loosen its restrictions. China’s ban on bitcoin mining was not solely about energy use. The government has long argued that cryptocurrency related activities pose risks to economic stability, disrupt financial order and enable illicit transactions. Over the past few years, Beijing has steadily intensified its broader crackdown on everything from exchanges to payment channels linked to digital currencies. This pattern reinforces the view that the government sees these activities as incompatible with its goals for financial oversight and long term stability.
Cryptocurrency Still Seen as a Systemic Threat
Beijing’s position on cryptocurrency has remained remarkably consistent. Officials emphasize that digital assets can facilitate money laundering, create speculative bubbles and threaten monetary control. Even if mining could help alleviate renewable energy oversupply, many analysts believe these energy related arguments are not strong enough to outweigh concerns about financial security. For the government, controlling the flow of capital and preventing destabilizing speculation appear to take priority over potential economic benefits from mining.
High Hopes, Low Expectations
While China’s minor hash rate increase has sparked conversation, experts broadly agree that it does not indicate a shift in policy. The resurgence is more likely the result of small scale, informal operations rather than an official pathway back into the industry. Unless the government dramatically changes its stance on digital currencies, bitcoin mining is expected to remain restricted. For now, the debate highlights a tension between China’s abundant renewable resources and its rigid cryptocurrency policies. Whether those two elements can ever be reconciled remains an unanswered question.
