How China’s 15th Five-Year Plan Will Define the Next Stage of Modernization
The conclusion of the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) marked a pivotal milestone for the nation’s strategic future. The adoption of the Recommendations for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) sets the tone for a transformative period focused on technological self-reliance, high-quality growth, and economic modernization.
Experts from academia and policy circles describe this plan as not merely another economic outline but as a roadmap bridging China’s past achievements and its next phase of modernization.
A Strategic Bridge Between Eras
Zhang Xiaojing, Professor of Economics and Director at the National Institution for Finance and Development (CASS), described the new plan as a crucial “strategic bridge” linking China’s developmental continuity with future innovation.
“The advancement of Chinese modernization is a process of continuous endeavor,” Zhang noted. “Each five-year plan plays a vital role in connecting past progress with future goals.”
He added that the five-year planning framework itself represents a key institutional strength, offering predictability in an uncertain world. “This stable expectation contributes not only to China’s internal stability but also to global macroeconomic balance,” Zhang said.
Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow at the Center for International Government Innovation, emphasized that China’s planning system stands out globally. “Unlike many countries where short-term political cycles dominate, China’s long-term planning ensures delivery and continuity,” he said.
Reform, Resilience, and High-Quality Growth
The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to steer China through a complex global landscape marked by sluggish growth and shifting trade dynamics. Zhang highlighted the need for a balanced interplay between an efficient market and a capable government, urging that “China’s path forward lies in doing our own job well.”
Key domestic priorities include:
- Strengthening new quality productive forces through innovation and digitalization.
- Expanding domestic demand to build consumption-led resilience.
- Establishing a unified national market to improve economic efficiency.
“This is a decisive stage for enhancing the socialist market economy and maintaining long-term economic resilience,” Zhang stated.
Technological Self-Reliance as the Cornerstone
A central feature of the new blueprint is China’s intensified push for technological sovereignty. The emphasis on self-sufficiency in AI, quantum computing, fusion energy, and biotechnology underscores the nation’s shift toward high-value innovation.
Zhang stressed that “technological power defines national competitiveness.” Without strong industrial and supply chains, he warned, “domestic circulation cannot operate effectively.”
Similarly, Qu Qiang, a researcher at the Belt and Road Research Center of Minzu University, outlined three major priorities:
- Domestic upgrading and reform to modernize market structures and drive consumption.
- Institutional opening-up to integrate with global trade frameworks such as RCEP and CPTPP.
- Scientific and technological self-sufficiency to fuel productivity-led growth.
Reindustrialization and the Real Economy
The plan also reaffirms the real economy, particularly manufacturing, as the anchor of China’s growth model. Zhang observed that global reindustrialization trends highlight manufacturing as a new strategic battleground.
“Maintaining a strong manufacturing base is essential for China’s economic security,” he said. “We cannot afford to lose this ‘war’; manufacturing remains the backbone of our modernization and global competitiveness.”
Conclusion
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan positions the nation for an era defined by innovation, stability, and self-reliance. By aligning institutional reform with technology-driven growth, Beijing seeks to transition from scale-based expansion to sustainable modernization, a move that could reshape global economic dynamics from 2026 onward.
